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The US Housing Forecast is Looking Good 2017 to 2020 and Beyond
Most real estate sales and realty investment experts are predicting a strong year ahead for US housing in 2017, through 2018 and beyond
There is worry about the specter of a housing crash in Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets. These are interesting times where fortunes are won and lost. Let’s hope you and your loved ones make the right investment decisions!
In this post below, you’ll find numerous insightful charts, videos and perspectives below to help you understand the housing market in 2017, 2018 and beyond. Rental income property is one investment area you must investigate — huge ROI possible — 30 to 40% reported. Which are the Best Cities to buy rental property?
There are plenty of buyers, especially first time buyers this year because jobs growth and income growth are climbing. The experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2017 and then above 1 million new homes being built per month up to 2024. Will it be enough? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may impact your choice about many things in 2017, from employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to politics, to buying a home, finding the best investments 2017 to moving to the best cities.
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From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property is King
Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco. The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at. Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, and New York have a promising outlook too.
See this post on investing in rental income property. Get some tips on how to do a better homes for sale search. Buyers might want to check out Canada given the excellent exchange rate. See the Guide to Buying Canadian Real Estate.
You won’t find too many US housing forecasts beyond 2017, yet we’re looking looking for the best cities to invest in real estate, where to buy a home, and whether this is a good time to sell your home. To see the future a little better, take a look at the Toronto real estate market, New York Real Estate Market and the market in the Bay Area. Find out what’s drving each of them.
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Here’s a short list of positive factors that will affect the housing market 2017 and beyond:
- moderately rising mortgage rates
- low risk of a housing crash for most cities
- millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
- a trend to government deregulation
- labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
- the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history
The biggest factor even for 2017 is Donald Trump. The repatriation of business, investment and jobs back to the US may come with a big price — a high dollar and strong inflation. That will drive home prices higher, and renters will be desperate to start building financial equity and own a home in 2017 and 2018.
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Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc. Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead.
Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics
These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers. The data reveals US housing starts and resales are on the rise 2017 to 2020 and beyond. And given the huge Generation Y have put off home ownership and are coming into their key buying years up to 2030, sales of homes and condos are predicted to continue strong well past 2020.
Are you checking out home prices and the best zip codes to invest? Do you know how you’ll get the best price? Helpful posts for homeowners who want to ensure the best return on their key life investment, their home: 10 Powerful Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price and How to Sell Your Home for Above Asking Price. What are the best investment opportunties for 2017?
Sharing is good for your social health!
Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.
Expert Predictions – US Housing
1. Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.
These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%. — BusinessWire
2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.
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Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise
It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.
Forisk Research projects US Housing starts continuing at 1.5 Million per year to 2024 #ushousing #homes… Click To Tweet
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Let’s begin with a look at how home prices have grown up to 2016. Nationwide prices are still $50,000 below the pre-recession highs. Will it take 3 to 4 more years to reach those highs? If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash?
Mortgage Rate Trends
Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.
US Housing Starts to 2024
This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.
2016 Non Farm Payrolls
With the price of oil forecast to be rising again, it’s unlikely that economic winds will inflate wage demands. From 2017 on, wage demands should ease from their hot rates as you can see here:
US Housing starts are forecast to grow strong this year and next, particularly single family homes which will rise about 30%.
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Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.
Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.
There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years. Realtors who have feared investing in digital real estate marketing should calculate the long term value (LTV) of clients you build today.
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