US Housing Market Forecast – Strong 2017 to 2020

US Housing Market Forecast – Strong 2017 to 2020

The US Housing Forecast is Looking Good 2017 to 2020 and Beyond

Most real estate sales and realty investment experts are predicting a strong year ahead for US housing in 2017, through 2018 and beyond

Is LA the benchmark city for real estate?

There is worry about the specter of a housing crash in Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets.  These are interesting times where fortunes are won and lost. Let’s hope you and your loved ones make the right investment decisions!

In this post below, you’ll find numerous insightful charts, videos and perspectives below to help you understand the housing market in 2017, 2018 and beyond.  Rental income property is one investment area you must investigate — huge ROI possible — 30 to 40% reported. Which are the Best Cities to buy rental property?

There are plenty of buyers, especially first time buyers this year because jobs growth and income growth are climbing.  The experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2017 and then above 1 million new homes being built per month up to 2024. Will it be enough? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen.

What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may impact your choice about many things in 2017, from employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to politics, to buying a home, finding the best investments 2017 to moving to the best cities.





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From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property is King

Will Los Angeles Lead the Nation in 2017 in Real Estate?

Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco.  The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at.  Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, and New York  have a promising outlook too.

See this post on investing in rental income property. Get some tips on how to do a better homes for sale search. Buyers might want to check out Canada given the excellent exchange rate. See the Guide to Buying Canadian Real Estate.

You won’t find too many US housing forecasts beyond 2017, yet we’re looking looking for the best cities to invest in real estate, where to buy a home, and whether this is a good time to sell your home. To see the future a little better, take a look at the Toronto real estate market, New York Real Estate Market and  the market in the Bay Area. Find out what’s drving each of them.


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Here’s a short list of positive factors that will affect the housing market 2017 and beyond:

  1. moderately rising mortgage rates
  2. low risk of a housing crash for most cities
  3. millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
  4. a trend to government deregulation
  5. labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
  6. the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history

The biggest factor even for 2017 is Donald Trump. The repatriation of business, investment and jobs back to the US may come with a big price — a high dollar and strong inflation. That will drive home prices higher, and renters will be desperate to start building financial equity and own a home in 2017 and 2018.

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Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc.  Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead.

Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics

These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers. The data reveals US housing starts and resales are on the rise 2017 to 2020 and beyond. And given the huge Generation Y have put off home ownership and are coming into their key buying years up to 2030, sales of homes and condos are predicted to continue strong well past 2020.

Are you checking out home prices and the best zip codes to invest? Do you know how you’ll get the best price? Helpful posts for homeowners who want to ensure the best return on their key life investment, their home: 10 Powerful Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price and How to Sell Your Home for Above Asking Price. What are the best investment opportunties for 2017?

 

Sharing is good for your social health! 

Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.



Expert Predictions – US Housing 

1.  Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.

These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%.  — BusinessWire

2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.

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Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise

It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.

Forisk Research projects US Housing starts continuing at 1.5 Million per year to 2024 #ushousing #homes… Click To Tweet
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us-housing-starts-all-time

US Housing Construction Starts All Time – on the Rise Again

Let’s begin with a look at how home prices have grown up to 2016. Nationwide prices are still $50,000 below the pre-recession highs. Will it take 3 to 4 more years to reach those highs? If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash?




US median home price outlook - Upward

Mortgage Rate Trends

Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.

mortgage-rates-trend

US Housing Starts to 2024

New Housing starts and predictions to year 2024

This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.

Single Family Home Construction Stats

Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

2016 Non Farm Payrolls

With the price of oil forecast to be rising again, it’s unlikely that economic winds will inflate wage demands. From 2017 on, wage demands should ease from their hot rates as you can see here:

Payroll Growth Chart

Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

30 year and 15 Year Mortgage rates

Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

US Housing starts are forecast to grow strong this year and next, particularly single family homes which will rise about 30%.

Housing starts 2017

Chart stats courtesy of realtor.org

Multifamily Home Starts - Millennial Buying Forecast

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Saving on car might even cut your home insurance and give you more money for your home downpayment. Check now for the lowest quotes for car insurance Los Angeles, car insurance Boston, auto insurance San Francisco, auto insurance Denver, car insurance Toronto, and car insurance Chicago.

Home Ownership: The home ownership rate is predicted to continue growing to 2020. #housing #mortgage… Click To Tweet

New Home Construction Prediction - Home Resales

Housing Starts Forecast to 2020 — Graphic courtesy of  tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.

f4

Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.

Existing Home Sales to 2020 - Prediction to 2020

Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast




There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years. Realtors who have feared investing in digital real estate marketing should calculate the long term value (LTV) of clients you build today.

What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?

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Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, Palm Beach, Miami, For Lauderdale, Orlando, Boca Raton, Wellington, Delray Beach, Boyton Beach, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa,  Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita,  Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Colorado Springs, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.

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There are 6 comments for this article
  1. Kara at 5:08 am

    There is no way that Trump can truly help the market with out making more promises that he will pull out like most of his deals that were to good to be true. We will have more housing issues before bubble burst. What about the middle class that are trying to get back on their feet? The younger generation has seen there parents lose jobs and homes. Younger people save more money and rather spend their money on living life instead of being trapped in a 30 year mortgage. Don’t get me wrong they will purchase homes but they will go for a 15 year mortgage or go tiny living. This generation are all too aware that a six figure income is like living on 80k-75k or less. Especially, if they are married. Let’s not forget they have more student loans that tremendously increase their debt to income ratio. Their average income is less than 45k for with degrees. Also, recent survey was done on those who made over 100k and ask if the could come up in with $3000 in 30 days. Most didn’t have the cash on readily available without tapping into other resources. The reason there is scarity in homes available for sales is because the ones that are able to keep their homes need more equity to purchase a more over priced home. My point is banks, mortgage lenders and local government are the ones that control the market not Presidents.

    • Gord Collins Author at 9:53 pm

      Kara, we’ll certainly see whether Trump will or can keep his word. It seems to me that income polarization became a problem along with global free trade. If free trade becomes fair trade as Trump is suggesting, that might be a way to bring back the middle class. Hillary Clinton is said to be the “status quo candidate” so she won’t be doing anything about the China trade deficit. This president will have some effect on things I’m pretty sure. He’s generating a lot of resistance though and who knows, OPEC may jam up the price of oil just they see it as a good time to cripple the US. So many variables! Yes the banks and local governments can be a problem such as in LA where the California Environmental Quality Act is preventing new home building leading to sky high prices of homes.

  2. Jeff at 1:26 pm

    At a pathetic growth rate of 1.1% of the US Economy, the election of Hillary Clinton will continue this stagnant trend and perhaps cause deterioration of even THAT rate.

    Our economy is poised to explode with pent-up demand. The current “status quo” president has countered every growth opportunity with domestic regulation and debt / deficit load.

    Unless the power of our own economic engine domestically is unleashed, the pressure of holding down home sales and mortgage loans will continue its steady trend of stagnation or decline over the longrun.

    There are many leading economic indicators and depending on political party affiliation, one can cherry pick and boast either positive or negative effects, to their storyline.

    Hoever, the aggregate effect of long term indicator trends is what really counts.

    I see a dismal Hillary Clinton economy, plagued, burdened, and compounded by the damage Barack Obama has done to it.

    I see a robust economy in most industry sectors ready to go at the starting gate with a Donald Trump presidency, with this man at the helm who knows how to leverage trade deals internationally and bring a ROI on our US based assets, with growth opportunities through tax incentives, vis a vis, a community organizer and his successor who have constantly sucked the life out of their American Host….. you.

    Until, and once the uncertainty is reduced, THEN we can get back to a cyclic economy with statistical smoothing that offers better predictions of our future.

    Until then, home prices and their sellers, bank appraisals, and buyers will suffer.

    • Gord Collins Author at 11:02 pm

      Thanks Jeff. I don’t know about cyclical economies. I always get sea sick. I think Trump will win, but his fanaticism is a worrying characteristic that turns voters off. The only one who can defeat Trump, is Donald Trump. He needs to calm down as the victory is his already. If he can cut the China trade deficit in half, it would be the best economic decision the US has made in a long time. He wants to cut red tape and that could free up real estate developers and cause prices to drop. Then all the millennials will get to buy a home.

  3. Miami Broker at 4:23 pm

    Gord- to be honest, and not to rain on the parade, I don’t foresee these prices holding up as NAR likes to predict. I’ve been a Realtor for the last 15 years, started in residential but, over the last 10 years, Ive found a niche in one of the commercial real estate sectors.

    NAR always has to be optimistic. If they weren’t, people would question their choice to buy a home, which means less realtors, then less fees for NAR. (Don’t get me wrong, they do put out some good data).

    In Miami, they have already overbuilt the condos again. Developers were banking on more South American buyers, but we all hear and see what is going on in Venezuela, Brazil, etc. if you can afford a condo in downtown, you are looking at 400k+ for a 1 bedroom. Not many single people can afford that. If you’re a family, you’re looking at 600k+ for a small little condo, which in my opinion is nuts.

    Most people my age that I know, late-30’s, are hesitant to buy right now because they can’t afford it or because they bought high on the last cycle and are waiting for the down turn. Most of us would rather limit our losses by being in a rental for a while, instead of having to wait 7-10 years to see your property appreciate enough to get back above water.

    Do I think a small down turn will come, yes. Do I see a huge burst like last time, not really.

    If you ever need a “boots on the ground” opinion about the Miami market, don’t hesitate to ask.

    • Gord Collins Author at 7:37 pm

      Thanks for your responses. Yes, NAR and all the real estate companies would benefit from a rosy, rising picture. For investors, the risk is high, but for those wanting to live in their homes and condos, it’s still a good idea to buy even with the prices. You can rent at sky high condo prices if you want, or put your rental payments into your own lasting equity. The charts show prices don’t come down a huge amount even during a painful recession. And as you said, things look okay for now. Should you go out and buy all of Johnny Depp’s condos on Sale in Los Angeles right now? Movie buffs might.

      Recently, in Toronto, there were complaints of too many condo developments, what Kevin O’Leary calls Shoe Boxes in the Sky. However, with immigration and a lack of land available in the Toronto area (phony green belt legislation), they got sold so the voices are quiet now. And those condos are about 40% of the price of houses. Turns out overbuilding wasn’t so bad. People are desperate for a place to live. Vancouver was the same and I’ve heard your city is similar. There are condos available in the $250 to $400k range and they’ll have their value in 10 years. You may know better, but it looks like they’re a good investment if you’re living in them.

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