Don't Go Into Hibernation - Spring 2017 is Coming Now…
The US Housing Forecast is Looking Good 2017 to 2020 and Beyond
Welcome to 2017! Such a mix of emotion to launch what should be the first of many good years ahead in housing. I hope you’re feeling good about buying, investing and selling, since real estate and investment experts are predicting a strong year ahead for US housing in 2017. You’ll find some insightful charts, videos and perspectives below to help you understand the housing market today and into the future.
Lots of Buyers this year but no homes to buy: Yet, they’re predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million in 2017 along with 160,000 new homes being built per year up to 2024. When builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may impact your choice about many things in 2017, from employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to politics, finding the best investments 2017 to moving where opportunity is.
From LA to New York to Dallas
Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco. The Los Angele housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at. Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, and New York have a promising outlook too.
See this post on investing in rental income property. Get some tips on how to do a better homes for sale search. Buyers might want to check out Canada given the excellent exchange rate. See the Guide to Buying Canadian Real Estate.
You won’t find too many US housing forecasts beyond 2017, yet we’re looking looking for the best cities to invest in real estate, where to buy a home, and whether this is a good time to sell your home. To see the future a little better, take a look at the Toronto real estate market, New York Real Estate Market and the market in the Bay Area. Find out what’s drving each of them.
Here’s a short list of positive factors that will affect the housing market 2017 and beyond:
- moderately rising mortgage rates
- low risk of a housing crash for most cities
- millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
- a trend to government deregulation
- labor shortages pushing up costs of production
- the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history
- Donald Trump and his “drain the swamp” crew
The biggest factor even for 2017 is Donald Trump. The repatriation of business back to the US may come with a big price — a high dollar and strong inflation. Trump has spoken on another matter that might seem inconsequential – that of forgiving student loan debt after 15 years. Young people including Millennials can’t buy homes because of massive student loan debts that kill their credit scores and keep them unable to save for the downpayment. That’s called a syndrome.
The US National Debt is Almost $20 Trillion and the trade deficit is $500 Billion for 2016. Is it the key factor behind a boom or crash in housing?
Palm Beach FL Homes for Sale
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Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc. Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a Us housing market crash in the years ahead.
Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics
These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers. The data reveals US housing starts and resales are on the rise 2017 to 2020 and beyond. And given the huge Generation Y have put off home ownership and are coming into their key buying years up to 2030, sales of homes and condos are predicted to continue strong well past 2020.
Are you checking out home prices and the best zip codes to invest? Do you know how you’ll get the best price? Helpful posts for homeowners who want to ensure the best return on their key life investment, their home: 10 Powerful Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price and How to Sell Your Home for Above Asking Price. What are the best investment opportunties for 2017?
Sharing is good for your social health!
Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.
Expert Predictions – US Housing
1. Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.
These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%. — BusinessWire
2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.
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Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise
It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.
Forisk Research projects US Housing starts continuing at 1.5 Million per year to 2024 #ushousing #homes… Click To Tweet
Are you looking to save money for a down payment, save money with the lowest car insurance, find the lowest mortgage rate, or get a free market evaluation? Are you a realtor looking for US real estate leads?
Let’s begin with a look at how home prices have grown up to 2016. Nationwide prices are still $50,000 below the pre-recession highs. Will it take 3 to 4 more years to reach those highs? If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash?
Mortgage Rate Trends
Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.
US Housing Starts to 2024
This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.
2016 Non Farm Payrolls
With the price of oil forecast to be rising again, it’s unlikely that economic winds will inflate wage demands. From 2017 on, wage demands should ease from their hot rates as you can see here:
US Housing starts are forecast to grow strong this year and next, particularly single family homes which will rise about 30%.
Save money on car insurance and it could help cut your home insurance and give you more money for your downpayment. This is good advice any real estate agent will give you. Check now for the lowest quotes for car insurance Los Angeles, car insurance Boston, auto insurance San Francisco, auto insurance Denver, car insurance Toronto, and car insurance Chicago.
Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.
Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.
There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years. Realtors who have feared investing in digital real estate marketing should calculate the long term value (LTV) of clients you build today.
What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?
Are you a full time realtor looking to grow your prospects and leads? Full service digital marketing is a bargain when it’s done well. What’s the forecast and trends for the real estate sales in your region? If you’re in Vancouver, Toronto, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear. But will you get your slice of that pie? Relying on real estate lead generation companies is another way you can go, however you have to pay forever and it’s questionable whether their leads are high quality.
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